MOROSI: The Tigers' top 10 prospects: Rick Porcello No. 1

JON PAUL MOROSI: The Tigers' top 10 prospects: Rick Porcello No. 1

January 19, 2008

JON PAUL MOROSI

INSIDE THE TIGERS

Free Press sports writer Jon Paul Morosi wrote in Baseball America his list of the Tigers’ top 10 prospects on Friday.

Right-hander Rick Porcello, Detroit’s first-round pick in last year’s amateur draft, topped the list. Shortstop Cale Iorg, another member of the team’s 2007 draft class, was second.

The top 10 includes four selections from last year’s draft – Porcello, Iorg, shortstop Danny Worth and right-hander Brandon Hamilton – and free agent reliever Francisco Cruceta.

Five players who were in line to make the list were dealt to the Atlanta Braves and Florida Marlins in the off-season trades that brought Edgar Renteria, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit.

The complete list is as follows. The players are listed with their position and the professional teams for which they played in 2007.

For further analysis of the prospects, check Sunday's Free Press.

1. Rick Porcello, RHP – No minor league experience

2. Cale Iorg, SS – Lakeland Flying Tigers (Class A Advanced), Gulf Coast League Tigers (Rookie)

3. Scott Sizemore, 2B – West Michigan Whitecaps (Class A)

4. Michael Hollimon, 2B/SS – Toledo Mud Hens (Triple-A), Erie SeaWolves (Double-A)

5. Yorman Bazardo, RHP – Detroit Tigers (AL), Toledo Mud Hens (Triple-A)

6. Jeff Larish, 1B – Erie SeaWolves (Double-A)

7. Matt Joyce, OF – Erie SeaWolves (Double-A)

8. Danny Worth, SS – Erie SeaWolves (Double-A), Lakeland Flying Tigers (Class A Advanced)

9. Francisco Cruceta, RHP – Oklahoma RedHawks (Triple-A/Texas)

10. Brandon Hamilton, RHP – Gulf Coast League Tigers (Rookie)

Our top two prospects were drafted last year? That's an interesting thought.

I wonder what Baseball America has to say. I trust them more than I do the this author. I thought Skelton would be there somewhere. I don't think we traded him yet (please note: I said Skelton, not Shelton).
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Coming soon: A better signature!

JON PAUL MOROSI
THE TIGERS' TOP PROSPECTS: Our analysis from No. 1 Rick Porcello to No. 10 Brandon Hamilton

January 20, 2008

I changed my ballot, time and time again. I made comparisons that, in the end, only made the candidates seem more alike. I asked experts for their advice. I agonized.

Finally, I decided.

No, I'm not talking about the Baseball Hall of Fame. I don't have enough seniority to take part in that election.

And I'm not revisiting last week's presidential primary -- although I was eligible to vote in that one.

I'm referring to the task of ranking the Tigers' top 10 prospects for Baseball America, a list the magazine published Friday.

Or, as the group is also known: Ten Guys Who Weren't Traded.

As fans celebrated the arrivals of Edgar Renteria, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis this off-season, I opened a very complete-looking document on my computer and trimmed away the names: Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez in late October; Cameron Maybin, Dallas Trahern and Eulogio De La Cruz in early December. (Andrew Miller had too much service time to be included this year.)

Now, the list includes six players -- Rick Porcello, Cale Iorg, Yorman Bazardo, Danny Worth, Francisco Cruceta and Brandon Hamilton -- who were not with the organization as of this date last year. Porcello, Iorg, Worth and Hamilton were selected in the 2007 draft.

Remember that players must have no more than 130 at-bats or 50 innings in the majors to be considered. (Ryan Raburn, for example, is no longer eligible.)

So, here's the list -- until the next trade.

1. Rick Porcello

RHP, Class A

Porcello is the rare 19-year-old who possesses four above-average pitches and the potential to command them all. He impressed club officials with his maturity during last fall's instructional league, and he has already listened to Justin Verlander's advice on how to handle life as a top prospect. Porcello should pitch at low Class A West Michigan or high Class A Lakeland.

2. Cale Iorg

SS, Class A

Iorg (pronounced OARGE) didn't play baseball during his two-year Mormon mission in Portugal, but scouting director David Chadd picked him in the sixth round of last year's draft, anyway, and watched him work out several times over the summer. And that was enough for the Tigers to sign him for roughly $1.5 million. "I didn't have any reservations at all," Chadd said.

3. Scott Sizemore

2B, DOUBLE-A

Sizemore's stock has risen steadily since the midpoint of last season. He joined the Arizona Fall League late and played well defensively -- even though he was out of position at shortstop -- and batted .356. Sizemore started the season by batting close to .200 in low Class A. But he made adjustments and ended the year by standing out among some of baseball's top prospects.

4. Michael Hollimon

2B/SS, TRIPLE-A

Hollimon is a good bet to reach the majors, because he has a lively bat, good defensive versatility and a tireless work ethic. He has reached the playoffs in all three of his seasons with the organization. He's athletic, a switch-hitter, leads naturally and wins. In other words, there is a lot to like. He's ready for Triple-A, and it will not be a surprise if he plays in the majors this year.

5. Yorman Bazardo

RHP, TRIPLE-A

A low-profile acquisition one week before spring training last year, Bazardo made an immediate impact on the organization. He was a consistent starter at Toledo and pitched well in 11 games with the Tigers. His change-up is a bona fide out pitch. Bazardo was a good candidate to make the 2008 rotation before Dontrelle Willis' arrival. With a good spring, he could earn a bullpen job.

6. Jeff Larish

1B, TRIPLE-A

You simply can't ignore his numbers at Double-A Erie last year: .267, 28 home runs, 101 RBIs. Some wonder if he will be able to hit major league pitching. That's a valid concern, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. "Jeff ... has a certain level of discontent at all times," ex-Erie manager Matt Walbeck said. "And that's a good attribute to have. He's never satisfied."

7. Matt Joyce

OF, DOUBLE-A

Walbeck said Joyce was the best defensive outfielder in the Eastern League last year. Multiple players from that Erie team have made similar comments. Good. He can play in the field. Now we need to know if he's going to be a major league hitter. Joyce had 127 strikeouts last year, so he may need a little more time at Double-A. But he's a natural run producer who should see Toledo soon.

8. Danny Worth

SS, Class A

This will be Worth's first full pro season, but he already has a lot of experience. He played 137 games among Pepperdine University, two Tigers affiliates and Hawaii Winter Baseball last year and impressed club officials with how quickly he adjusted to the pro game. Worth is a steady fielder who will not be counted on to hit for much power. He should play at Lakeland or Erie this year.

9. Francisco Cruceta

RHP, Tigers

The Tigers are high on Cruceta and are confident he will fill a setup role in their bullpen this year. He has pitched for four organizations and was suspended last year after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance, but Tigers officials believe his sinker and splitter are ready to get big outs in the American League.

10. Brandon Hamilton

RHP, Class A

Some club officials believe Porcello has the SECOND-best curveball among the team's '07 picks. The best belongs to Hamilton. "He has a big league breaking ball," said Scott Johnson, Hamilton's high school coach. "It's nasty. There aren't many other words to describe it. If he develops a little better control ... he could have a long, productive career."

WEB EXCLUSIVE: Jon Paul Morosi's Tigers chat with Baseball America (PART ONE)

January 20, 2008

FREE PRESS STAFF AND NEWS SERVICES

Jon Paul Morosi chatted with Tigers fans on BaseballAmerica.com about his top 10 Tigers prospects and more. Here are a portion of the 60 questions and answers:

To read the full chat, log on to www.baseballamerica.com

Q: I was surprised that Jeff Larish was not the top hitting prospect based on his power projection and solid 2007 season. What made Scott Sizemore jump ahead of Larish this year?

A: Good question. Even though Sizemore played two levels below Larish last year, I believe he is the safer bet to be a consistent big-league hitter. He doesn't have Larish's power, obviously, but he walks more than he strikes out and has a real knack for making solid contact. He really impressed people in the Arizona Fall League. It will be interesting to see where he settles defensively. A lot of people project him at second base — and I think that's his most natural position — but he has acquitted himself well at shortstop when given the opportunity to play there. I still like Larish. His approach at the plate is unorthodox, and some scouts are turned off by that. But I look at his production and say, Hey, the guy keeps hitting. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt until that changes.

Q:What do the Tigers see as Zach Miner's role on the team next year?

A: At this point, he will come to Lakeland with a chance to make the big-league bullpen, but that's not a given. He has minor-league options left, which could come into play. As long as Jim Leyland sticks with two left-handers — which is likely, but not certain — then the Tigers have room for five right-handers in the bullpen. Barring injury, Jones and Rodney are locks. So, that leaves three spots for Cruceta, Grilli, Bautista, Bazardo, and Miner. With the exception of Miner, all of them are out of options. So, Miner will probably need to be the clear winner for a roster spot in order to make the club. The same logic may apply to Ryan Raburn if the Tigers are unable to trade Brandon Inge. Raburn has an option left, and Marcus Thames does not.

Q: Can you compare the ceilings of Rick Porcello and Andrew Miller. Who would you rather have?

A: It's hard to compare a high school right-hander with no professional experience with a college left-hander who's already been to the big leagues. Both project as future top-of-the-rotation starters. If I had to choose, I'd take Porcello. He's a four-pitch guy with remarkable command for a pitcher his age. He's only 19, but he could move quickly.

Q: Are there any catchers in the system worth talking about?

A: One catcher, James Skelton, made the top 30. And there is some doubt as to whether he projects as a catcher in the long term. So, yes, catching continues to be a concern. Skelton is a hitter with some questions about his ability to catch everyday. He could end up being a great find. A lot of the minor league catchers have struggled to hit. Dusty Ryan has a rocket arm, but he batted .214 at Lakeland last year. Jordan Newton is a great athlete, but he needs to have a strong 2008 to move into the prospect discussion. One side note: I heard the Tigers had some interest in Oregon State catcher Mitch Canham with their sandwich pick last year, but the Padres took him a couple slots before.

Q: What kept Brent Clevlen off the top 10? Will he ever refine his skills enough to become a regular for the Tigers?

A:I've watched Clevlen since 2003, and I like him a lot. As you know, he has a great-looking swing and tremendous power when he makes contact. He just misses too much. I ranked him at #3 last year — ahead of guys like Jurrjens and Hernandez — but then he struck out 113 times in 90 games at Toledo. He simply didn't make the adjustment. Leyland has said that Clevlen might be the best defensive outfielder in the organization, but he needs to make more regular contact if he wants to establish himself in the majors. This has to be a really big year for him.

Q: It seems like the Tigers have an abundance of shortstop prospects. Which one of the three in the top 10 do you see ultimately winning the starting job?

A: Good question. As I see it, the Tigers have five players with big-league tools at shortstop: Iorg, Worth, Giarratano, Dlugach, and Ciriaco. Of that group, of course, Giarratano and Dlugach ended '07 on the DL after shoulder surgery. Giarratano should be able to participate in spring training. Dlugach might be ready early in the regular season. Iorg probably has the highest ceiling of the bunch. He's a physical shortstop. One Tigers official compared him to Tulowitzki. That's pretty good company. If he develops, I think he's the most likely starter of them all. Worth is a smooth fielder but won't hit for much power. In that respect, he's a little like Dlugach. Ciriaco has good tools, but he batted .224 and made 24 errors at West Michigan. He has the body frame to play third, where the organization has fewer prospects. It will be interesting to see where he ends up to start this season.

Q: In retrospect, do you think Detroit made the right decision to essentially cut their best minor league talent in exchange for two polished Major Leaguers who may or may not adapt well to the A.L.?

A: I think they did. They believe they have a chance to win a World Series in 2008 and/or 2009, and they're going for it. It's hard to blame them for that. They have developed a clear philosophy with respect to the draft. They are paying big money for top talent, regardless of the MLB slot recommendations. And that has allowed them to make the big trades. Without going over slot with Miller, they wouldn't have been able to make the Cabrera-Willis deal. And without going over slot with Porcello, they might not have been comfortable trading Miller. Everything fits together. The Tigers may not be able to take a player of Maybin or Miller's caliber every year, but I'm sure they expect to nurture their replacements by good scouting and player development.

Q: What kept D.J. LeMahieu from signing, and what is your evaluation of him?

A: LeMahieu, for those of you who don't know, was the Tigers' 41st round pick last year. He was an infielder at Brother Rice HS in suburban Detroit and is at LSU now. I think LeMahieu was pretty set on attending college. Especially after the Tigers spent so much on Porcello, Crosby, and Iorg, there wasn't much of a chance that they could pay LeMahieu, too. I heard last week that he should start at shortstop for LSU as a freshman — quite an accomplishment. We'll see where he stands in the '10 draft.

WEB EXCLUSIVE: Jon Paul Morosi's Tigers chat with Baseball America (PART TWO)

January 20, 2008

FREE PRESS STAFF AND NEWS SERVICES

Jon Paul Morosi chatted with Tigers fans on BaseballAmerica.com about his top 10 Tigers prospects and more. Here are a portion of the 60 questions and answers.

To read the full chat, log on to www.baseballamerica.com

Q: Larish - future DH, or is there any position available for him in the foreseeable future? Tick...tock...tick...tock...

A: Or you could think of it this way: If Larish hits at Toledo, he may be one injury away from the majors this year. If Guillen gets hurt, Larish could come up. If Cabrera gets hurt, Guillen could shift to 3B and Larish could come up to play 1B. If Sheffield gets hurt, Larish could come up to be the left-handed part of a DH platoon with Thames. (Of course, the Tigers may be able to opt for Hessman in these instances. Leyland really likes Hessman.) Larish has some experience in LF, too, but I don't think the Tigers have any plans to move him there now. For now, I think Larish just needs to go to Toledo and hit. If he does that, he will end up in Detroit eventually. Keep in mind that he isn't on the 40-man and has three options left. The Tigers have no reason to rush him.

Q: Where do Virgil Vasquez, Preston Larrison and Jordan Tata rank in the top 30? I know Larrison was thought of as a posisble Rule 5 pick.

A: Tata and Vasquez are in the teens. Larrison is in the 20s. You're right. Larrison was a Rule 5 candidate. He has a power sinker, but he needs to throw more strikes. He threw 12 wild pitches in 58 2/3 innings last year, which is alarming. If he would have shown more consistent command last year, he probably would have been called up during the Tigers' bullpen shortages. Tata has better pure stuff than Vasquez, but he wasn't called back to the majors in September. Vasquez was. For both of them, the 2008 theme will be finding ways to get big-league hitters out when they need to throw a strike. Vasquez allowed 7 home runs in 16 2/3 innings last year in Detroit.

Q: Is Kyle Sleeth officially finished?

A: Not necessarily, but I don't think the Tigers can reasonably count on him as part of their future plans. He had a great spring, then he was hit by a line drive in one of his first appearances at Erie and never really recovered. He dropped down to Lakeland and had a 7.62 ERA there. He's not on the 40-man roster anymore, so he would need to receive an invite in order to participate in big-league spring training. We'll see if that happens. Sleeth is a very classy, likeable guy. I know a lot of people in the organization are pulling for him.

Q: Who are some sleeper candidates that we should be keeping our eye as both breakout players this year and some younger ones maybe down the road?

A: Charlie Furbush and Duane Below are similar, in that they are left-handers from northern states — i.e., they don't have a lot of innings on their arms — who have posted good numbers in the minors. That's a good sign. The Tigers had some good depth in last year's draft, apart from the guys we listed in the top 10. Justin Henry and Kody Kaiser have already showed that they can hit. And I have to mention Clete Thomas here. He made the top 30 — in the mid-teens, in fact — but he deserves special mention here. He can run, defend and play multiple outfield positions. He also bats left-handed. Guys like that tend to earn call-ups when people are injured. He's a guy to keep an eye on in spring training.

Q: You wrote that it would come as no surprise if Yorman Bazardo opened the season as Detroit's fifth starter. Considering the Tigers just signed Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson to three-year deals, isn't the rotation pretty much set without Bazardo?

A: Yes, it is. I wrote that before the big trade, when the Tigers' fifth spot was open. Now, there are no openings, so look for Bazardo to compete for a bullpen job. He's out of options, so Detroit will take a long look at him in spring training.

Q: Of the prospects you list, it seems only Bazardo and Cruceta have a shot at the big leagues in 2008. Who else is closest? Anyone outside the Top 10 close?

A: Depending on their performance in the minors, Sizemore, Hollimon, Larish or Joyce could earn a call-up this year if someone is injured. The same goes for Clete Thomas. Some players in the teens — Tata, Clevlen, Vasquez, Giarratano — have already been to the majors, so they could be candidates for call-ups again this year.

Q: What is Porcello's ETA in Detroit? Does he have a chance to be up there in 2009, or is he more of a long-term project?

A: As always, it depends on health and performance. I'd be surprised if he moves through the system as quickly as Verlander did, for the simple reason that Verlander had three years of collegiate experience and Porcello has none. I think at some point in the 2010 season would be more realistic, but it's hard to say for sure. He is the type of pitcher who could defy projections.

Q: Where do the once well-thought of Wilkin Ramirez and Cody Kirkland now stand?

A: Ramirez actually had a reasonably successful 2007 season, in that he remained healthy and gained more experience in the outfield. I think he will be back at Erie to start '08 … Ramirez has very good tools, but he's still inexperienced in the outfield. He's in the mid-teens of my top 30. He's been in the system since 2003, and, even though he's been hurt for a lot of that time, the time is drawing near for him to perform. I think he will go back to Erie, with an emphasis on refinining his defense and improving his plate discipline … Kirkland has great tools, but he struggled again. He's much better than the .202 average and 28 errors he had last year. The Tigers would love for him to start performing, because third base is their next-weakest position after catcher.

Q: Brandon Hamilton...I think this guy is a big-time sleeper, even though he's #10. Do the Tigers think he could develop into a #1-type? Even a high-end #2? Who might he be comparable to right now in the bigs? And is he really that far behind Porcello?

A: I think he's more of a middle-of-the-rotation starter, but I really like what I've heard about him. Good body, good stuff. A few people have told me that his breaking ball is even better than Porcello's. He can sit in the low 90s with his fastball, which will be good enough if he can develop a third pitch. He's working on a splitter now. It's hard to say where he will pitch this year, but he's got a lot of potential.

Q: Tata had a few terrible outings in the big leagues last year, but he seems as though he still has the tools to be a solid starter in time. Why does it seem that everyone has kind of gotten down on this guy?

A: I don't think everyone is down on him. The Tigers have kept him on the 40-man roster, and I still think he could be a good pitcher in the majors. His fastball has that natural cutting action. He's more valuable as a starter, but he might be better out of the bullpen. I could see him coming on in relief and throwing those cutters to right-handers with a good amount of success. For now, though, I expect him to be in the Toledo rotation.